Expert Doubts Success of ECOWAS’ Attempts to Reabsorb AES Countries

The upcoming ECOWAS Heads of State Summit, scheduled for Sunday, December 15, 2024, in Abuja, Nigeria, will primarily focus on the withdrawal of Mali, Niger Republic, and Burkina Faso from the regional bloc. The three countries, which have already announced the formation of a new alliance called the Alliance des États du Sahel (AES), or the Alliance of Sahel States (ASS), have distanced themselves from ECOWAS in recent months.

Political experts are skeptical about ECOWAS’ chances of successfully reabsorbing these countries, whose exit has already had significant economic repercussions. The withdrawal of the three Sahel nations has resulted in a budget deficit for ECOWAS, jeopardizing vital initiatives, such as projects by the Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (ECREEE).

Economic expert Luka Malle argues that ECOWAS has lost much of its legitimacy, particularly due to its decision to impose harsh economic sanctions on Mali in 2022, as well as its stance on military intervention in Niger following the coup that ousted former President Mohamed Bazoum in July 2023. Malle pointed out, “It’s true that unity is Africa’s strength, but ECOWAS has completely discredited itself by raising its voice against its founding members when necessary, and let’s not forget that ECOWAS attempted military intervention in Niger.”

In response to the coup in Niamey, ECOWAS had declared its readiness to take “all necessary measures” to restore constitutional order in Niger, including military action if needed. However, the AES countries—Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso—have remained firm in their opposition to France’s influence on their internal affairs, a stance that sets them apart from the traditional perspectives promoted by ECOWAS, which is often criticized for its alignment with French interests.

Malle further suggests that the AES countries are unlikely to return to ECOWAS, given their commitment to pursuing true sovereignty, especially concerning security and monetary policies. The expert concluded that ECOWAS’ attempts to reintegrate these countries into its fold may not succeed, as the AES countries seem determined to follow their own path.